Jays and Rays talk Dukes deal
Several sources are reporting that the Blue Jays and Devil Rays are discussing a trade that would send coveted OF/1B Elijah Dukes to Toronto for pitchers Shaun Marcum and minor leaguer Josh Sowers. It's rumors like this that I find particularly interesting: on the surface it doesn't seem to make much sense, but if you look a little deeper you'll find clues that might indicate baseball wisdom.
The Blue Jays have been seeking starting pitching since the beginning of the off-season. Last week, J.P. took a chance by signing the recovering former Braves pitcher, John Thomson. This signing is a good move in my opinion. The Jays get a veteran who has some solid seasons behind him at a bargain price. (Amazing that we consider half a million bucks to be a basement bargain!) If Thomson fails to regain his form, the Jays won't be strapped for cash. There's also an equal chance that Thomson will do well in spring training and emerge as the Jays' 4th or 5th starter. While this appears to be a positive signing, does it fulfill the team's desperate need for pitching? I'd have to say no.
It's believed that Shaun Marcum would also compete for a starting job this season. Aside from Marcum, the Jays don't have too many other options: Josh Towers and Casey Janssen.
Marcum just turned 25 in December and played at the major league level in 2005 and 2006. He has been considered one of the centerpieces of the future Blue Jays, possessing solid physical tools and excellent composure and strength on the mound. He has a good arsenal of pitches: a solid upper 80s fastball, plus a very good slider, changeup and curveball.
23 year old Josh Sowers is the younger brother of Cleveland Indians' LHP, Jeremy Sowers, but he might just have a better slider than his sibling. He also throws a 86-90 mph fastball with good late movement. Sowers is polished and has an intelligent approach to pitching. With a little more experience under his belt, he could turn out to be a promising young starter in the majors.
If the Jays are so desperate for pitching, why would they trade one of their young starters?
Both Marcum and Sowers may have plenty of potential but they also have lots to prove. The Jays need excellent pitching to compete in the AL East–I'd hate to see the Yanks and Red Sox teeing off these young guys this season. Down in Tampa Bay however, where the focus is more squarely centered on young player development, Marcum and Sowers could flourish, even if they're only used at Triple-A.
Elijah Dukes is just 22 and if he can keep his attitude in check, he could become a huge threat at the plate. He was suspended last season at least twice, and has been considered a bad influence on Tampa's two other most promising players, Delmon Young and B.J. Upton. As late as last August, Dukes stated that he was considering leaving baseball for good. Despite the bad press, he managed to put up some excellent numbers last season at Triple-A: he hit .293 with 10 homers and 50 RBIs in 80 games.
Where is the hidden wisdom in this possible trade?
Marcum and Sowers have potential to be sure, but Dukes' potential is a better bet. Basically, any time you can trade a couple of potentially good starters for one of the best offensive prospects in the game, you take that chance.
The Jays OF consists of Wells, Rios, Johnson, and Adam Lind–pretty solid. However, Rios and Johnson have been on the trading block for months and the Jays still have a chance to flip one of them for a decent starter before spring training begins. Let's assume that's J.P.'s plan and review what the outcome would be: On the pitching side of things, the rotation would get bolstered by (possibly) Thomson plus a proven starter via trade. The starting line-up becomes: Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Thomson and (fill in the blank). The outfield would be revamped with Wells, Rios or Johnson, Lind and Dukes. Through two trades, J.P. would have beefed up his starting line-up both offensively and defensively–a perfect chess move!
Remember that this is all just heresay at this point! Apparently the Bucs are also in the hunt for Dukes. Jays fans should reserve their excitement for the time being, but WOW this could be awesome!
Personally, I would hang on to Marcum and Sowers. I'd be very wary if I were J.P. about adding someone like Dukes. He does have the upside but the attitude is what worries me.
You could just as easily flip Johnson or Rios for a starter, which the Jays desperately need, and work on developing Marcum and Sowers.
I liked what I saw out of Marcum last year and remember, he's only 25. Pitching in the AL East is no picnic so hopefully he'll continue to improve.
Thanks for your comment, Jason!
Dukes' parents and agent are probably pretty frustrated. Here we have a superb MLB threat in training, but his attitude is almost always considered on the same level as his baseball tools. MLB doesn't need another Carl Everett. With so much money at stake in this young man's career, has it occurred to anyone to get him a personal trainer? Not someone to work out with at the gym, but a behavioral coach. You can train someone out of a bad attitude much easier than you can instill solid baseball skills.
Marcum has some great skills and potential. Sowers I am less familiar with, but I like his mental approach to the game. There's no doubt that pitching is where it's at these days, but just how long do you hold out for potential when you have a potentially quicker and more lethal offensive prospect available via trade?
I definitely think that Rios or Reed have to be traded before ST for a quality starter. I'd also like to see Josh Towers pack his bags–he's had enough chances in Toronto.
UPDATE: Dukes charged with marijuana possession
Very glad that this trade never happened. Dukes is a train wreck.
Yeah, agreed Trever. Dukes would not have fit in with the Jays, especially during the Gibbons era. (Imagine the fireworks between those two!)
He's a good fit with a young team like the Nationals though. Something I would love to see the team do is hire him a life coach. Some of these guys are so young coming up to the Bigs and could use some help developing life skills as well as baseball fundamentals. It would be in the team's best interest. Has a team ever done this for a big potential/big risk player like Dukes?