Church defies probabilities, hits 2-run tater to tie game

I'm watching the Diamondbacks/Nationals game on MLB.TV right now. Every couple of innings, the Diamondback announcers gush over the ProTrade Win Probability stats for the game that have showed a large lead for the Diamondbacks. In the 5th inning, the probability of a win for Arizona was 94%. By the 7th inning, that probability had reached 95%. In the 8th however, the Nationals' Ryan Church hit a 2-run homer off Diamondbacks' reliever Doug Slaten to tie the game. (It was the first home run by a left-handed batter allowed by Slater all season.) The Nationals' Win Probability now sits at 23% as we head to the bottom of the 8th!

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