CBC outlines the Jays' uphill battle
CBC.ca has published a new Jays 2007 season preview, but the outlook is familiarly shaky at best: Jesse Campigotto predicts a mediocre 3rd place finish with a 84-78 record, and places the blame on the uncertainties of pitching and injuries. Summed up, the Jays would need everything to go right for them and everything to go wrong for the Yanks and BoSox in order to make the post-season.
Hitting
While the Jays had one of the strongest hitting squads last season in all of baseball they still managed to limp in at next-to-last in the AL for cashing in runners from scoring position. This is about more than bad luck, as Campigotto would have us believe. Sure our mashers can hit, but the team needs to focus on the small ball game: smart base running, bunting, getting those butts across the plate. It's this approach that transformed the 2005 Chicago White Sox from a "gorilla ball" team to a World Series Champ'. The departures of catcher Bengie Molina and the dependable Frank Catalanotto should be easy to bear provided that the newly acquired DH Frank Thomas manages to stay healthy. I am looking forward to watching the Big Hurt as a Jay!
Pitching
Despite the big catch signings of A.J. and B.J. last year, pitching has remained a question mark for the Jays, with the only truly dependable starting pitcher being the work horse, Roy Halladay. However, if 1) A.J. and Gustavo Chacin can live up to expectations; 2) Josh Towers can shake his erraticism and emerge as a dependable starter; 3) new signings Tomo Okha, John Thompson and Victor Zambrano can lock up the back end of the rotation with some wins, the Jays could have a decent rotation capable of supporting a run at the post-season.
Relief pitching is probably an even larger issue for the Jays, with the departure of Justin Speir who anchored the bullpen with a 2.98 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 51 innings last year. Promising youngster Brandon League will get a long look, but if that doesn't work out the Jays will have to turn to an unproven staff consisting of Jason Frasor, Brian Tallet, Scott Downs and Davis Romero.
Defense
The biggest hole in the Jays defense is the middle infield. Russ Adams won't be seen at SS this year as he will spend some time at Triple-A trying out his hand at manning 3B. That's a couple of handfuls of errors that we will be happy to keep off the books. However, his replacements provide only a mediocre improvement.
New Jay Royce Clayton is a league average defender with a fairly weak bat, though he can come through with some clutch hits and might inspire the team to steal more bases. Despite the loud complaints from the peanut gallery when J.P's acquisition was announced last fall, Clayton has managed to stay in the majors and contribute in his own small way to his teams' efforts. He's not "the answer" for the Jays problems up the middle, but he could prove to be a good patch solution.
Platooning with Clayton will be John MacDonald, who has earned a reputation for flashy plays and the knickname of "The Prime Minister of Defense". However, he still possesses a meager .960 fielding percentage and isn't a consistently strong hitter.
Neither Clayton or MacDonald are the shortstops of the future for the Jays, and J.P. should probably consider a mid-season acquisition to get their defense Word Series-ready.
Aaron Hill will be back at 2B and should be able to provide league average defense.
Elsewhere around the diamond the Jays are strong, with solid corner defense with Glaus and Overbay, the dependable catching of Gregg Zaun, and an outfield stocked with Wells, Rios and Johnson.
The Final Word
Personally, I think the Jays will do better than Campigotto's prediction: a second place finish with a 93-69 record. Boston is on the decline, and the Jays have enough power to overcome some of their shortcomings. The season's outcome will depend on the Jays' pitchers to get serious, stay healthy and generate a lot of fly balls for the sturdy outfield to handle. Meanwhile, the mashers need to keep mashing, but also need to be thinking more about manufacturing runs.
Lastly, the team's coaching staff needs to cultivate a positive winning attitude on and off the field in their players. The Jays had big hopes last season that were dashed by injuries, resulting in a debilitating frustration in the club house that eventually boiled over in embarressing exchanges between manager John Gibbons and Shea Hillenbrand, and Gibbons and Ted Lilly. These kinds of events very negatively influence a team's mental attitude. The guys need to harness a playing style that is both relaxed and confident in order to win.
The tools are there for the Jays to put to use in 2007. I've said it before and I'll say it again: winning is all about mojo. On that note, here are some musical suggestions for the guys' pre-game iPod sessions:
- "CAUTION (Do Not Stop On Tracks)" by The Grateful Dead
- "Come Together" by The Beatles
- "Keep Your Hand Off Of My Mojo" by Coot Grant and Kid Sox Wesley Wilson
- "Mojo Pin" by Jeff Buckley
- "I Got My Mojo Working" by Muddy Waters
